Sunday, November 10, 2019
The German stock market lays out a small mini-series. For five weeks, the Dax knows only one direction. And an end to the party is not in sight. Rather, she should get more tailwind in the upcoming week. Meanwhile, one of the uncertainties remains US President Trump.
Stock investors are likely to look forward to a continuation of the recent rally in the new week. "The path of least resistance leads upwards," says investment strategist Felix Herrmann of the world's largest asset manager Blackrock. Strong US economic data, the prospect of a move away from Brexit deadlock and the early signing of a partial trade agreement between the US and China would boost the stock markets. It is also encouraging that the US will probably forego the planned punitive tariffs for European cars. Dax 13,228.56 In recent days, the Dax skipped the 13,000 mark for the first time in about one and a half years. With a plus of just over two percent, he recorded the fifth weekly win in a row. This is the longest series in four months. One downside, however, was the statement by insiders, within the White House resistance is forming against the planned repeal of the mutual punitive tariffs by the US and China. US President Donald Trump later even stirred doubts about an agreement. He said that he had not agreed to gradually withdraw duties that had already been imposed, he said. Trump could put another end to the optimists' resolve: until 14 November, he wants to decide whether European cars will be subject to additional charges. The outgoing EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, however, expressed his conviction that Trump will refrain from doing so. Surprisingly good balance sheet balance Meanwhile, the balance-sheet season is heading for its next peak. "So far, this has turned out better than expected in both Europe and the US," says Bernd Meyer, chief investment officer of asset management at Berenberg Bank. In the new week, half a dozen Dax companies are showing business figures. These include Deutsche Post, the utility RWE and the "Persil" provider Henkel. Abroad, British mobile phone operator Vodafone and US retailer Walmart are opening their books. He expects Post to increase its operating income by 16 percent, according to analyst David Kerstens of investment bank Jefferies. Regardless, options on indices and individual stocks expire on Friday. In the days before, stock prices typically fluctuate sharply as investors seek to move the prices of those securities they hold derivatives in a favorable direction. Will the recession become official? In terms of economic data, stock exchanges are focusing their attention on, among other things, inflation in Germany and Europe. From these figures, they hope to draw conclusions about the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) under its new boss Christine Lagarde. On Thursday, data will be added on German and European economic growth. The expected decline of the German gross domestic product by 0.1 percent will make it official that the Federal Republic has slipped into a recession, says Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen. A speedy turnaround is not in sight, even if the ZEW index on Tuesday is expected to signal a clear mood brightening of domestic stock market professionals. Beyond the Atlantic, US retail sales are of interest. Private consumption is considered the mainstay of the world's largest economy. In parallel, the Economic Barometer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is published.